Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleInsurgencies in Iran 100%En tête parmi 10 options
Prévisionnistes
83
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète25 févr. 26, 16:47 UTC31 janv. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Venezuela enter a new hot war with anyone by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsHot war between the US and China by the end of 2026?
FutuurNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Any number of these conflicts might resolve Yes this year, once they enter the Minor Wars or Major Wars categories on Wikipedia's List of Ongoing Armed Conflicts.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts
- I will be fairly liberal with what counts as a conflict.
- Unlike previous versions of this market, we are now using article titles for existing civil conflicts, and are only using country pairings for conflicts not already on the page.
- If a new conflict article or country pairing gets folded into an existing article, the question will only resolve Yes if the encompassing article is both over the threshold AND the beligerents from the country pairing fought in the current year.
- This means that changes in Wiki policy or recategorization of past articles should not count by themselves for this market.