Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the US, before 2027?
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Données au 26 oct. 2026, 06:50 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
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En retard5 avr. 25, 11:57 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will New World screwworm (maggots that eat animals alive) be effectively eradicated from the wild by 2030?
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria:
- A "YES" outcome requires that a credible source (e.g. a government agency such as the USDA-APHIS) confirms that a free-ranging wild animal in the contiguous United States has been infected by the New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax), before January 1st 2027 at 00:00 GMT.
- Infections in humans do not count.
- Similarly, infections in pets, livestock, or otherwise captive or confined animals do not count.
- However, infections in feral animals (such as feral cats) will count.
- An example of what would qualify as a "YES" if it happened again, is the outbreak among deer in the Florida Keys in 2016.
