Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the US, before 2027?
One-OffScienceHealth & MedicineWeather3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 79%
Prévisionnistes
23
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète5 avr. 25, 11:57 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Resolution criteria:
- A "YES" outcome requires that a credible source (e.g. a government agency such as the USDA-APHIS) confirms that a free-ranging wild animal in the contiguous United States has been infected by the New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax), before January 1st 2027 at 00:00 GMT.
- Infections in humans do not count.
- Similarly, infections in pets, livestock, or otherwise captive or confined animals do not count.
- However, infections in feral animals (such as feral cats) will count.
- An example of what would qualify as a "YES" if it happened again, is the outbreak among deer in the Florida Keys in 2016.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the US, before 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 79% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the US, before 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the US, before 2027? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the US, before 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria: