Will wild-animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue by the beginning of 2100?
One-OffSociété et culture
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 04:47 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 50.7%
Oui 50.7%Prévisionnistes
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Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète26 mars 23, 01:03 UTC1 janv. 00, 05:00 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Wild-animal suffering will be a mainstream moral issue by 2100, conditional on biological humans still existing
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Manifold MarketsWill there be a year, before 2030, in which *net* AI suffering outweighs net 2022 farmed animal suffering?
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Manifold MarketsRègles
One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.
- Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions.
- (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)
- Clarifications:
- Resolves YES if wild animal suffering becomes a mainstream moral issue then stops being one before 2100? (Probably either because people stopped caring or eliminated such suffering entirely.)
