Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 75.3%
Prévisionnistes
340
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
8 déc. 23, 19:32 UTC3 mars 28, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will we get AGI before 2036?
Manifold MarketsWill we get AGI before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill we get ASI before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the human civilization collapse before we become multi planetary species?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.
- Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can.
- It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
- Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2028
- MOD EDIT (Nov 2, 2025 - @Stralor)
- This market uses In what specific year will we hit AGI? as its baseline.
