Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 18:05 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 97.6%
Prévisionnistes
78
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète3 févr. 24, 14:34 UTC1 mars 27, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will we get AGI before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill we get AGI before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill we get AGI before 2036?
Manifold MarketsWill the human civilization collapse before we become multi planetary species?
Manifold MarketsHow many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
PolymarketMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) refers to a level of artificial intelligence that surpasses the cognitive performance of humans in virtually all domains of interest, including scientific creativity, general wisdom, and social skills.
- Unlike Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), which matches human capabilities, ASI exceeds them, demonstrating superior problem-solving and inventive skills, advanced learning and adaptive capabilities, and unparalleled reasoning and planning abilities.
- ASI embodies not only the ability to perform tasks that require human-like intelligence but also the capacity to achieve goals with efficiency and effectiveness far beyond human capabilities.
- It represents an evolution in AI, where machines are not just equal, but distinctly superior to the best human brains in every field, including scientific understanding, general knowledge, and emotional intelligence.
- Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2027
- Markets with the same criteria:
