Will a case linked to the Irkutsk plague be reported outside Irkutsk Oblast by November 1?
Russie / UkraineOne-OffSanté et médecine26jManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 87.1%
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binary
Méthodologie
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Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
5 oct. 26, 01:53 UTC31 oct. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if a person outside Irkutsk Oblast is credibly reported as infected with the illness from the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Institute cluster before the end of October PT.
- I will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
- The case must be epidemiologically linked to the cluster, for example through contact with a known case or travel from Irkutsk.
- I will give some time for the reports to be confirmed.
- If the consensus of credible reporting shifts and the case is confirmed to not be related, then that won't count for YES.
- The date used for resolution is the first credible report (not supposedly when they are infected).