Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 92%
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 minutes
4 oct. 26, 16:00 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026?
KalshiWill a case linked to the Irkutsk plague be reported outside Irkutsk Oblast by November 1?
Manifold MarketsWill the Irkutsk Anti-Plague institute incident turn into an outbreak?
Manifold MarketsWill the Dancing Plague return before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the CDC report more measles cases in 2027 than 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia name the pathogen in the Irkutsk pneumonia case in Oct 2026?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if there are more than 1,000 officially confirmed or highly suspected cases of plague (Yersinia pestis) linked to the October 2026 Irkutsk outbreak in Russia.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- Timeframe: The cutoff date for counting cases is December 31, 2027, or one full month after the WHO or local agencies declare the potential outbreak is no longer a concern without retraction.
- Definition of Cases: Cases must be officially confirmed or classified as suspected by public health agencies, originating from the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute incident.
- Sources of Truth: The primary sources of truth will be official updates from the Russian Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) or the World Health Organization (WHO).
