PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 87%
Non 87%Qualité du marché
66 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
3,4 k €
Liquidité
1,8 k €
Faible liquiditéAchat / Vente
12.0% / 14.0%
Écart
2.0 pt
Spread modéréCommentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 minutes
6 oct. 26, 08:21 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Polymarket
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Ordre minimum (parts):
- 5
- Pas de cotation:
- 1 points de pourcentage
- Frais:
- Oui
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Another pneumonic plague case in Russia by which date?
PolymarketWill a pneumonic plague case be reported in the U.S. this year?
KalshiPlague pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketConfirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026?
KalshiPlague declared public health emergency by which date?
PolymarketWill the Irkutsk Anti-Plague institute incident turn into an outbreak?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a human case of pneumonic plague outside the Russian Federation is confirmed and established as epidemiologically linked to the outbreak associated with the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A "confirmed case" is a case explicitly identified by a qualifying source as laboratory-confirmed Yersinia pestis infection with pneumonic (pulmonary) involvement, or explicitly announced as a confirmed pneumonic plague case.
- A bubonic or septicemic case that progresses to pneumonic plague qualifies.
- An epidemiological link means a qualifying source states that the case acquired its infection from a person, animal, sample or material connected to the Irkutsk outbreak, or that the case travelled from Irkutsk Oblast within the incubation period and is being investigated as part of that outbreak.
- Resolution is based on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation and the link, not the date of exposure, symptom onset or laboratory result.