KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Before December 1, 2026 77%En tête parmi 3 options
Before December 1, 2026 77%Qualité du marché
34 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
946,8 €
Intérêt ouvert
946,8 €
Intérêt ouvert faibleÉcart
57.0 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 minutes
5 oct. 26, 06:00 UTC1 déc. 26, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Kalshi
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Clôture anticipée:
- Oui
- Délai de règlement:
- 500s (indicatif)
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Confirmed pneumonic plague case in Russia by which date?
PolymarketWill a case linked to the Irkutsk plague be reported outside Irkutsk Oblast by November 1?
Manifold MarketsWill the Irkutsk Anti-Plague institute incident turn into an outbreak?
Manifold MarketsHow many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
KalshiHow many gonorrhea cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
KalshiCyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
KalshiRègles
If a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague in the United States is officially reported by a Source Agency after Issuance and before December 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The disease is human pneumonic plague specifically. Bubonic or septicemic plague without pneumonic involvement, unspecified plague, and animal cases do not qualify. A case must be confirmed in the United States; a U.S. citizen diagnosed elsewhere does not count. Imported cases diagnosed and reported in the United States qualify and need not be linked to the Russian outbreak. The first initial official confirmation must occur after Issuance and before midnight ET at the start of December 1, 2026. Symptom onset or infection before the deadline is insufficient if confirmation occurs later.
Règles de chaque résultat
- Before December 1, 2026
- If a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague in the United States is officially reported by a Source Agency after Issuance and before December 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The disease is human pneumonic plague specifically. Bubonic or septicemic plague without pneumonic involvement, unspecified plague, and animal cases do not qualify. A case must be confirmed in the United States; a U.S. citizen diagnosed elsewhere does not count. Imported cases diagnosed and reported in the United States qualify and need not be linked to the Russian outbreak. The first initial official confirmation must occur after Issuance and before midnight ET at the start of December 1, 2026. Symptom onset or infection before the deadline is insufficient if confirmation occurs later.
- Before January 1, 2027
- If a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague in the United States is officially reported by a Source Agency after Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The disease is human pneumonic plague specifically. Bubonic or septicemic plague without pneumonic involvement, unspecified plague, and animal cases do not qualify. A case must be confirmed in the United States; a U.S. citizen diagnosed elsewhere does not count. Imported cases diagnosed and reported in the United States qualify and need not be linked to the Russian outbreak. The first initial official confirmation must occur after Issuance and before midnight ET at the start of January 1, 2027. Symptom onset or infection before the deadline is insufficient if confirmation occurs later.
- Before November 1, 2026
- If a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague in the United States is officially reported by a Source Agency after Issuance and before November 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The disease is human pneumonic plague specifically. Bubonic or septicemic plague without pneumonic involvement, unspecified plague, and animal cases do not qualify. A case must be confirmed in the United States; a U.S. citizen diagnosed elsewhere does not count. Imported cases diagnosed and reported in the United States qualify and need not be linked to the Russian outbreak. The first initial official confirmation must occur after Issuance and before midnight ET at the start of November 1, 2026. Symptom onset or infection before the deadline is insufficient if confirmation occurs later.