Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2030?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffRussia / UkraineChinaLatin AmericaMiddle EastHealth & Medicine3a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 74.5%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète1 juin 23, 06:33 UTC1 janv. 30, 08:00 UTC
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PolymarketRègles
As of 2023, global conflict hotspots include areas such as Taiwan due to China's aggression, Ukraine due to escalating conflict, Russia due to growing civil unrest, and regions involving North Korea, Israel, and Iran due to their respective nuclear programs.
- Additionally, migration surges to the U.S. from Central America and Mexico due to increased violence and acute weather events have heightened tensions.
- The potential for these conflicts to escalate into war with substantial casualties is a pressing concern for global security.
- Before January 1st, 2030, will a war occur anywhere in the world that results in the death of over one million people?
- Resolution Criteria:
- This question will resolve positively if, before January 1st, 2030, credible sources confirm that a war has occurred in any region of the world resulting in the death of over one million people within one year.