Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?
One-OffGéopolitiqueRussie / UkraineChineAmérique latineMoyen-OrientSanté et médecine8aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 69.7%
Prévisionnistes
21
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 minutes
1 juin 23, 06:33 UTC1 janv. 35, 08:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill another accidental liftoff occur before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people?
Manifold MarketsWill another pandemic occur under Donald Trumps Presidency?
Manifold MarketsWhich USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
KalshiWhere will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of October?
PolymarketRègles
As of 2023, global conflict hotspots include areas such as Taiwan due to China's aggression, Ukraine due to escalating conflict, Russia due to growing civil unrest, and regions involving North Korea, Israel, and Iran due to their respective nuclear programs.
- Additionally, migration surges to the U.S. from Central America and Mexico due to increased violence and acute weather events have heightened tensions.
- The potential for these conflicts to escalate into war with substantial casualties is a pressing concern for global security.
- Before January 1st, 2035, will a war occur anywhere in the world that results in the death of over one million people within one year?
- Resolution Criteria:
- This question will resolve positively if, before January 1st, 2035, credible sources confirm that a war has occurred in any region of the world resulting in the death of over one million people within one year.