PolymarketFerméVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréRéglé par le fournisseur, marché par marché
Résolu: 8 oct. 2026, 00:31
Cet événement n'a pas de gagnant unique. Le fournisseur a réglé chaque marché séparément ; chaque marché affiche son propre résultat.
Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 8 oct. 2026, 00:21 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Chronologie des Probabilités
September 150%
October 31100%
September 30100%
October 31Gagné
September 30Gagné
September 15Perdu
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Iran target Jordan by which date?
PolymarketWill Iran target Egypt by which date?
PolymarketWill Iran target the United Arab Emirates by which date?
PolymarketWill Israel attack Iraq in October 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Israel attack Iraq in November 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Israel attack Iraq in 2029?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Iraq through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Iraq.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.