Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 50.3%
Prévisionnistes
333
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète7 déc. 23, 22:20 UTC1 mars 30, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027
Manifold MarketsWill we get AGI before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill WW3 start before gta6?
Manifold MarketsHealthcare AI adoption in September
KalshiTrump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?
PolymarketHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.
- Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can.
- It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
- Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2030
- MOD EDIT (Nov 2, 2025 - @Stralor)
- This market uses In what specific year will we hit AGI? as its baseline.
Marchés ouverts
Russia / UkrainePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-0.8pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.3pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,8 M €
- Volume 24h
- 231 k €
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 2027-1.0pt14%
- December-1.0pt7%
- September 30,+0.1pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhere will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
- No meeting before 2027+0.5pt91.2%
- Qatar / UAE+0.3pt2%
- Switzerland-0.3pt2%
+11 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRussia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
- No+0.1pt99%
- Yes-0.1pt1%
- Volume total
- 576,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 56,9 k €
POLYMARKETUnited Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?
- 325–339+0.5pt37.1%
- 340–354-2.0pt24.7%
- 310–324-2.6pt19.6%
POLYMARKETWhere will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
- China-1.0pt54.9%
- No meeting by December 31-2.0pt33.3%
- Gulf country+1.4pt3.9%
+12 résultats de plus
- Bank of Russia decision in September?
- Will Russia capture Bilytske by which date?
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by which date?
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will we get AGI before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 50% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will we get AGI before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will we get AGI before 2030? doit être résolu le 1 mars 2030.
- Comment Will we get AGI before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.