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Données au 5 oct. 2026, 06:52 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Probabilité implicite actuelle
1 or more 0%En tête parmi 3 options
1 or more 0%Qualité du marché
24 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
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Intérêt ouvert
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Intérêt ouvert inconnuÉcart
55.0 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 minutes
5 oct. 26, 00:30 UTC1 nov. 26, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Kalshi
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Clôture anticipée:
- Oui
- Délai de règlement:
- 30m (indicatif)
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the Irkutsk Anti-Plague institute incident turn into an outbreak?
Manifold MarketsMore than 1000 cases of Irkutsk Plague?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia name the pathogen in the Irkutsk pneumonia case in Oct 2026?
KalshiConfirmed pneumonic plague case in Russia by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia control Irkutsk on Jan 1st 2032?
Manifold MarketsNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
PolymarketRègles
If the total number of human plague cases reported in Irkutsk Oblast during 2026 is at least 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:Rospotrebnadzor
- Cases are determined at 10:00 AM ET on the Expiration Date (November 8). Only cases that Rospotrebnadzor, Russia's federal public health agency, confirms after Issuance and before November 1, 2026 count. Cases newly reported during the window between November 1 and Expiration do not count, even if they are backdated to the specified time period. A case is a human infection with Yersinia pestis (plague in any form) in Irkutsk Oblast, including a posthumous confirmation, and each infected person counts once. Suspected cases, and illness described as pneumonia of undetermined etiology, do not count.
Règles de chaque résultat
- 1 or more
- If the total number of human plague cases reported in Irkutsk Oblast during 2026 is at least 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 2 or more
- If the total number of human plague cases reported in Irkutsk Oblast during 2026 is at least 2, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5 or more
- If the total number of human plague cases reported in Irkutsk Oblast during 2026 is at least 5, then the market resolves to Yes.