Au moins 20 % des démocraties occidentales cesseront-elles d'être de facto démocratiques d'ici 2034 ?
One-OffGéopolitiquePolitiqueEurope7aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 85.2%
Prévisionnistes
49
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 heures
Obsolète13 juin 23, 17:56 UTC2 mars 34, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump remain de facto leader of the United States beyond the end of his second term?
Manifold MarketsVenezuela de facto leader end of 2026?
PolymarketWho will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill Russia be the de facto ruling power of the North Pole by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRègles
Capturing the chance of democratic backsliding, but with a significantly lower bar than a majority.
- Exact same resolution criteria as @chrisjbillington's market, but resolves YES if in any release of The Economist Democracy Index up to and including the 2033 release (likely to be published in early 2034), 20% or more of the listed countries are no longer listed as democracies, being listed instead either as a "hybrid" or "authoritarian" regimes.
- If there is any dispute on the resolution I will defer to @chrisjbillington if he's willing, or use my best interpretation of his criteria if he is not available.
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/chrisjbillington/will-the-majority-of-western-democr)
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-6.0pt74%
- September 18-6.0pt69%
- September 11-10.0pt61%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 363 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)+0.3pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.3pt3%
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+3.0pt79.2%
- Yes-3.0pt20.8%
- Volume total
- 9,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 245,5 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-1.0pt29.1%
- September 30-1.0pt12%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 301%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 62,8 M €
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Au moins 20 % des démocraties occidentales cesseront-elles d'être de facto démocratiques d'ici 2034 ? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 85% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Au moins 20 % des démocraties occidentales cesseront-elles d'être de facto démocratiques d'ici 2034 ? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Au moins 20 % des démocraties occidentales cesseront-elles d'être de facto démocratiques d'ici 2034 ? doit être résolu le 2 mars 2034.
- Comment Au moins 20 % des démocraties occidentales cesseront-elles d'être de facto démocratiques d'ici 2034 ? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Capturing the chance of democratic backsliding, but with a significantly lower bar than a majority.