Will Donald Trump remain de facto leader of the United States beyond the end of his second term?
One-OffPolitique américainePolitiqueÉlectionGéopolitique2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 92.7%
Prévisionnistes
60
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète6 nov. 24, 15:21 UTC21 janv. 29, 07:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiRègles
Lots of possible edge cases here so this is going to be a judgement call to some extent.
- But here are some examples which may clarify the intent:
- Resolves yes if:
- There is a constitutional amendment allowing Trump to have a third term as President
- Trump dissolves the office of President and functionally becomes dictator-for-life
- Someone else is elected President on a platform of "doing exactly what Trump says" and effectively becomes a figurehead for Trump.