Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?
One-OffPolitiqueGéopolitiqueLatin AmericaÉlection3mois
KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Delcy Rodríguez 86.4%En tête parmi 8 optionsAjusté de la marge : les cotes brutes dépassaient 100 % au total et ont été normalisées.
Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
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Liquidité
20,7 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
5.0 pt
Spread modéréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
14 mai 26, 21:00 UTC2 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsRègles
If the named outcome de facto holds the position of head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:the New York TimesThe Wall Street JournalBBC Newscountry's Ministry of Foreign Affairsthe United NationsNPRthe Associated PressReutersThe Washington Postthe Financial TimesBloomberg NewsThe Economist
- For the purposes of this Contract, "the named outcome de facto holds head of state of Venezuela" means that, at the end of 2026, the named outcome is the individual who primarily exercises the governing authority and core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, regardless of the named outcome's formal title, constitutional designation, formal appointment, domestic legal status, foreign recognition, or international recognition.
- The Source Agency's determination of whether the named outcome de facto holds head of state of Venezuela shall be based on objective indicators of governing authority over the functions attached to head of state of Venezuela, which may include, without limitation:
- Control over the executive ministries, administrative apparatus, bureaucracy, and state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela Issuance of binding national directives, decrees, orders, or instructions that are observably obeyed and enforced within the relevant jurisdiction Control over the official seat of power, capital, headquarters, principal residence, or principal infrastructure associated with head of state of Venezuela Treatment by the domestic state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela Treatment by foreign governments, multilateral institutions, and credentialed media as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela
- The following alone will NOT qualify as de facto holding head of state of Venezuela:
- Holding the formal or constitutional title to head of state of Venezuela without exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela Serving in an acting, interim, caretaker, provisional, or temporary capacity that is subordinate to and accountable to a principal who continues to exercise the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela Nomination, designation, election, appointment, or confirmation to head of state of Venezuela prior to the effective transfer of governing authority Status as successor, heir apparent, or designated replacement to head of state of Venezuela prior to assumption of governing authority Symbolic, ceremonial, or honorary status without exercise of the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, except where head of state of Venezuela is itself a primarily ceremonial position and the named outcome performs the ceremonial functions associated with head of state of Venezuela without operative displacement Foreign or international recognition as the holder of head of state of Venezuela without exercise of operative governing authority within the relevant jurisdiction Leadership from exile, in detention, or otherwise removed from the operating seat of head of state of Venezuela, where another individual is observably exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela without subordination to the named outcome Holding a different role with general political, religious, military, or institutional influence over head of state of Venezuela without personally exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela
Comparaison des sources de prévision
- Également disponible sur Polymarket — Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026? · Delcy Rodríguez 93%
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026? ?
- Kalshi cote Delcy Rodríguez à 86% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2027.
- Comment Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If the named outcome de facto holds the position of head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Où Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026? est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Polymarket.