Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup?
PolitiqueGéopolitiqueOne-OffSportChessLatin AmericaÉlectionMiddle East2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 55%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète20 févr. 26, 20:51 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Iranian Regime survives Trump Administration?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a military coup in the United States before 2029?
Manifold MarketsIran a liberal democracy in 2032, conditional on regime change in 2025 or 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
PolymarketWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
PolymarketWill the Iranian Regime fall before October?
MyriadRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if, in the event that regime change occurs in Iran, credible international media (Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, etc.) reports that the change was achieved primarily through a military coup—defined as the forcible seizure of power by military or paramilitary forces (particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or regular military) displacing the existing clerical leadership.
- The coup must involve the military taking direct control of state institutions and governance.
- Examples of such types of coups: Brazil 1964, Chile 1973, Argentina 1976.
- This market resolves NO if regime change occurs through other means: purely popular revolution (French Revolution, USSR, Romania), civil war (must be longer than 1 year, Syria is an example), foreign military occupation (Iraq, Afghanistan), or voluntary transition of power (Brazil 1985, Chile 1990).
- American or israeli airstrikes, blockade or covert operations doesn't count as foreign military occupation.
