Which will happen first, Civil War 2 or World War 3?
GéopolitiqueManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleThird World War 51%
Prévisionnistes
20
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 23 minutes
9 avr. 24, 13:44 UTC1 janv. 01, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Sudan civil war ceasefire by which date?
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Manifold MarketsWill there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
FutuurWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRègles
Will the United States break out into a civil war first? Or will a the named outcome break out first?
- Resolves to whichever is considered to happen first, according to things like news outlets, Wikipedia, other bets, etc. For example, if https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-there-be-a-civil-war-in-the-un resolves to Yes first, I would most likely resolve this to Yes for Civil War 2:
- "Civil War" means any large scale military action taken by some part of the country against some other part of the country.
- This could be military vs. civilian, military vs. military, or civilian vs. civilian.
- Actual violence must be involved, not just threats. "Large scale" means that it takes place in more than one city and each side has the support of a significant fraction of the country.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 581,3 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 55,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 96,8 k €
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Which will happen first, Civil War 2 or World War 3? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Third World War à 51% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Which will happen first, Civil War 2 or World War 3? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Which will happen first, Civil War 2 or World War 3? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2101.
- Comment Which will happen first, Civil War 2 or World War 3? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Will the United States break out into a civil war first? Or will a the named outcome break out first?