Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 94.1%
Prévisionnistes
192
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète26 août 22, 03:21 UTC1 janv. 30, 08:00 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any of the following Western countries have a civil war by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a civil war with at least 1,000 deaths in Venezuela in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a civil war in Hungary in 2026?
Manifold MarketsSudan civil war ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketWill there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
FutuurWill Xi Jinping visit the United States?
KalshiRègles
"Civil War" means any large scale military action taken by some part of the country against come other part of the country.
- This could be military vs. civilian, military vs. military, or civilian vs. civilian.
- Actual violence must be involved, not just threats. "Large scale" means that it takes place in more than one city and each side has the support of a significant fraction of the country.
- It must be an attempt to conquer territory or people, not just riots.
- It's an "I know it when I see it" kind of thing.
- I won't bet.