Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Other 86.3%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
21
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète18 févr. 24, 03:55 UTC1 janv. 31, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Was the Wagner Group’s rebellion in June 2023 a strategic ruse staged by Russian leadership?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketWhich leaders will leave office in 2026?
KalshiUS-Iran nuclear deal?
KalshiRègles
We’re going by the List of rebellions in the United States on Wikipedia.
- Entries will need to remain up for 14 consecutive days for this to Resolve YES.
- Market will extend as needed.
- Previous entries include:
- Jan 6th, 2021
- CHOP in Seattle [2020]
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-6.0pt74%
- September 18-6.0pt69%
- September 11-10.0pt61%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 363 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)+0.3pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.3pt3%
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+3.0pt79.2%
- Yes-3.0pt20.8%
- Volume total
- 9,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 245,5 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-1.0pt29.1%
- September 30-1.0pt12%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 301%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 62,8 M €
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When’s the next American rebellion? 🇺🇸🔥👊🔫 ?
- Manifold Markets cote Other à 86% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand When’s the next American rebellion? 🇺🇸🔥👊🔫 sera-t-il résolu ?
- When’s the next American rebellion? 🇺🇸🔥👊🔫 doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2031.
- Comment When’s the next American rebellion? 🇺🇸🔥👊🔫 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : We’re going by the List of rebellions in the United States on Wikipedia.