Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleeither usajmo or usamo qual 87.1%En tête parmi 9 options
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète19 août 26, 03:15 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
note that I plan on applying to all mentioned programs, and competing in all mentioned competitions. if I am not able to apply to a program or compete in a competition, that choice will be marked as resolved and all mana will be refunded.
- the mop and usa(j)mo markets are separate; if I get mop then both mop and usa(j)mo would be resolved as YES.
- 2026 results:
- yeah that's essentially it
- some extra info: been doing OTIS for ~2.5 months straight now and have finished over 20 units (>75% of the problems completed on each one); 13+ B and 7+ D, with plans to finish all "important" OTIS units at B (already somewhat done) and D level before olympiads roll around, totaling around 60
- [over half of this time was spent at Ross where I wasn't able to focus fully on OTIS]
Marchés ouverts
Science
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 211 k €
- Volume 24h
- 110,5 k €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 21,3 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour what will i achieve this year (2027) in terms of math ?
- Manifold Markets cote either usajmo or usamo qual à 87% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand what will i achieve this year (2027) in terms of math sera-t-il résolu ?
- what will i achieve this year (2027) in terms of math doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2027.
- Comment what will i achieve this year (2027) in terms of math est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : note that I plan on applying to all mentioned programs, and competing in all mentioned competitions. if I am not able to apply to a program or compete in a competition, that choice will be marked as resolved and all mana will be refunded.