Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 56.2%
Prévisionnistes
32
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète13 oct. 22, 04:59 UTC1 janv. 00, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the Clay Mathematics Institute formally recognize OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution as correct before 2029?
Manifold MarketsIf I switch majors from Finance to Applied Mathematics, will I regret it in May 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsIs Earth flat?
PolymarketUS test scores in Reading in 2026?
KalshiWill Duke University rank first overall in 2027?
ForecastExRègles
Les critères de résolution ne sont pas encore disponibles pour ce marché. Cette section sera remplie lors des prochains rafraîchissements une fois les règles de la source enregistrées.
Marchés ouverts
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.4pt4%
- September 30-0.3pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 59,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 97,8 k €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028+3.0pt15%
- Before 2027-0.4pt5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 29,6 M €
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 203580%
- Before 2030-9.1pt62%
- Before 2029-7.9pt17%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 271 k €
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1-2.0pt74.8%
- 2+0.5pt24.2%
- 3-0.1pt1%
+3 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETHantavirus vaccine in 2026?
- No+0.1pt97%
- Yes-0.1pt3%
- Volume total
- 120 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 k €
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes+3.3pt76%
- No24%
- Volume total
- 303,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,2 k €
- When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- Will the number of major hurricanes in the Atlantic exceed 0 in October 2026?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?
- When will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Was mathematics created (YES) or discovered (NO)? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 56% au 17 septembre 2026.
- Quand Was mathematics created (YES) or discovered (NO)? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Was mathematics created (YES) or discovered (NO)? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2100.