Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 70.6%
Prévisionnistes
19
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 minutes
15 sept. 26, 08:04 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by which date?
PolymarketWill open models be able to solve Navier Stokes by the end of 2028 for under $1000 in compute?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?
PolymarketWhich of Anthropic and OpenAI will get more credit for the Navier-Stokes solution, in my judgement?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?
PolymarketDoes a smooth Navier-Stokes solution always exist?
Manifold MarketsRègles
It must be the same proof as was published originally.
- If it has to be tweaked in substance, that doesn't count.
Marchés ouverts
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.4pt4%
- September 30-0.3pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 59,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 97,8 k €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028+3.0pt15%
- Before 2027-0.4pt5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 29,6 M €
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 203580%
- Before 2030-9.1pt62%
- Before 2029-7.9pt17%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 271 k €
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1-2.0pt74.8%
- 2+0.5pt24.2%
- 3-0.1pt1%
+3 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETHantavirus vaccine in 2026?
- No+0.1pt97%
- Yes-0.1pt3%
- Volume total
- 120 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 k €
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes+3.3pt76%
- No24%
- Volume total
- 303,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,2 k €
- When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
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- Will the number of major hurricanes in the Atlantic exceed 0 in October 2026?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?
- When will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the Clay Mathematics Institute formally recognize OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution as correct before 2029? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 71% au 17 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the Clay Mathematics Institute formally recognize OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution as correct before 2029? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the Clay Mathematics Institute formally recognize OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution as correct before 2029? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2028.
- Comment Will the Clay Mathematics Institute formally recognize OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution as correct before 2029? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : It must be the same proof as was published originally.