Will open models be able to solve Navier Stokes by the end of 2028 for under $1000 in compute?
IAOne-Off2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 85.3%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard11 sept. 26, 22:09 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
prinz (@deredleritt3r) on X
- [link preview]Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, by December 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM UTC, an open-weights AI model (or an agentic system powered strictly by open-weights models) successfully generates a verified mathematical solution or formalized proof resolving a major open aspect of the Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness problem, under the following conditions:
- Open Models: The model(s) used must be open-weights, meaning the model weights are publicly downloadable (e.g., hosted on Hugging Face under an open or open-source license) at the time of the breakthrough.
- Compute Cost: The total compute cost required to execute the generation/search/inference run of the proof must be under $1,000 USD.
- This cost is calculated based on commercial API rates or equivalent cloud GPU rental prices (e.g., RunPod, Vast.ai, AWS) at the time of the run.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will open models be able to solve Navier Stokes by the end of 2028 for under $1000 in compute? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 85% au 17 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will open models be able to solve Navier Stokes by the end of 2028 for under $1000 in compute? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will open models be able to solve Navier Stokes by the end of 2028 for under $1000 in compute? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2028.
- Comment Will open models be able to solve Navier Stokes by the end of 2028 for under $1000 in compute? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : prinz (@deredleritt3r) on X