Prévision communautaire actuelle
OpenAI 96.4%+58.1ptEn tête parmi 13 options
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+46.4 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 minutes
5 sept. 26, 19:12 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the Navier-Stokes problem be solved before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Navier-Stokes be solved with the help of Google or Alphabet scientists by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsDid OpenAI just solve navier stokes??
Manifold MarketsAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- What counts as "solved":
- It doesn't have to be formally accepted by the Clay institute, but it should be generally accepted as clearly correct in essence
- A lean proof is not required
- Minor proof errors are accepted, as long as they don't interfere with the consensus belief that the proof is essentially correct
- If a proof is released before 2028 and it is ambiguous whether it meets this criteria, I may wait arbitrarily until the consensus becomes clear to resolve.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour [Add answers] Who or what will first solve Navier-Stokes before 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote OpenAI à 96% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand [Add answers] Who or what will first solve Navier-Stokes before 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- [Add answers] Who or what will first solve Navier-Stokes before 2028? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2027.
- Comment [Add answers] Who or what will first solve Navier-Stokes before 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria