Prévision communautaire actuelle
OpenAI 96.7%En tête parmi 13 options
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète5 sept. 26, 19:12 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which Millennium prize problem will be solved next? (after Navier-Stokes)
Manifold MarketsWill the Navier-Stokes problem be solved before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Navier-Stokes be solved with the help of Google or Alphabet scientists by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill open models be able to solve Navier Stokes by the end of 2028 for under $1000 in compute?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by which date?
PolymarketOpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- What counts as "solved":
- It doesn't have to be formally accepted by the Clay institute, but it should be generally accepted as clearly correct in essence
- A lean proof is not required
- Minor proof errors are accepted, as long as they don't interfere with the consensus belief that the proof is essentially correct
- If a proof is released before 2028 and it is ambiguous whether it meets this criteria, I may wait arbitrarily until the consensus becomes clear to resolve.
