Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleExplicit nuclear reference (U.S. or Iran) 92.4%En tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète4 mars 26, 18:36 UTC1 janv. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
PolymarketWill a US-Iran nuclear control deal be signed in 2026?
FutuurUS-Iran nuclear deal [Kalshi] resolves the same as US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsWill China intervene and offer Iran nuclear power plants, ending the war, in 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran nuclear deal?
KalshiWill Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2040?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Which of the following will occur at least once between March 4th and Dec 31, 2026 23:59 ET?
- Independent.
- Each answer resolves YES/NO on its own. “At least once” means any single qualifying occurrence in the window triggers YES.
- Only publicly observable official statements/actions and authoritative technical bodies/monitoring (or reporting that clearly cites them) count.
- Explicit nuclear reference (U.S. or Iran)
- Resolves YES if an official U.S. or Iranian government statement uses explicit nuclear wording (e.g., “nuclear,” “atomic,” “nuclear weapons,” “nuclear forces”) and also names the other party (“Iran” or “United States/U.S./America”) in the same statement.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour U.S. – Iran nuclear milestones in 2026 ?
- Manifold Markets cote Explicit nuclear reference (U.S. or Iran) à 92% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand U.S. – Iran nuclear milestones in 2026 sera-t-il résolu ?
- U.S. – Iran nuclear milestones in 2026 doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment U.S. – Iran nuclear milestones in 2026 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Which of the following will occur at least once between March 4th and Dec 31, 2026 23:59 ET?