PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 96%+0.3pt
Qualité du marché
76 / 100
Haute qualitéVolume 24h
4,6 k €
Liquidité
35 k €
Liquidité élevéeAchat / Vente
3.3% / 5.0%
Écart
1.7 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
0
Variation 7j
-0.8 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 minutes
5 nov. 25, 19:43 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Règles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
- Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
- Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran.
- For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
Marchés ouverts
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 23,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 312,6 k €
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-19.5pt49%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+6.1pt59.2%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.6%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+0.3pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Volume total
- 6,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 153,3 k €
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Netanyahu out by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Iran nuclear test before 2027? ?
- Polymarket cote No à 96% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Iran nuclear test before 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Iran nuclear test before 2027? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Iran nuclear test before 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET.