Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 95.1%
Prévisionnistes
38
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète18 févr. 26, 04:58 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US conduct a nuclear test before 2030?
Manifold MarketsHow many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
PolymarketWill the US conduct ground operations in mainland Iran before Jan 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsRussia nuclear test by which date?
PolymarketIran nuclear test before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves to a consensus of credible sources.
- Doesn't have to occur on US soil, as long as it is the US conducting the test.
- A US test conducted in conjunction with another nation (like France or the UK) would qualify, as long as it's clear that the US is an equal partner in these tests.
- By tests, we're talking actual nuclear tests, the kinds we made treaties about, not the kind of monitoring that the US does regularly, even if Trump, say, calls that a "nuclear test".
- Very strong OSINT arguments (radioactivity monitoring, seismology, etc) such that a reasonable Manifolder would conclude it is highly likely that the US conducted a nuclear test based on the evidence would qualify, even if the mainstream press phrases things ambiguously like "The US may or may not have conducted a nuclear test" or similar.
- I will not bet on this market to remain as objective as possible.
Marchés ouverts
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POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
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POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the US conduct a nuclear test in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 95% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the US conduct a nuclear test in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the US conduct a nuclear test in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will the US conduct a nuclear test in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves to a consensus of credible sources.