Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffRussia / Ukraine3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 86.4%
Prévisionnistes
41
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète12 août 23, 10:19 UTC1 janv. 27, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
I ( @EvanDaniel ) am taking over this market from an inactive creator.
- It's poorly defined, I'll do my best with it.
- Nuclear weapon test: a nuclear weapon includes a nuclear explosion, not just a reactor.
- It is something where the majority of the energy release comes from fission or fusion reactions, not chemical.
- In other words, atom bombs or hydrogen bombs, but not nuclear-propelled aircraft, ships, cruise missiles, etc. and not dirty bombs. "Test" would include failed tests, so in this case it's whether that was the (apparent) intended result; a fizzle or other failure would count as a test.
- For now the boundaries of the archipelago will be "I know it when I see it"; If someone has a proposal for how to handle stuff in the ocean near the archipelago please post it.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 86% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : I ( @EvanDaniel ) am taking over this market from an inactive creator.