Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffRussie / Ukraine2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 94.2%
Prévisionnistes
43
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 minutes
12 août 23, 10:19 UTC1 janv. 27, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US conduct a nuclear test in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia conduct military operations in any another country against ISIS-K before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia conduct military operations in Afghanistan against ISIS-K before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia conduct a new wave of public military mobilization before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurWill Russia target Kyiv on?
PolymarketRègles
I ( @EvanDaniel ) am taking over this market from an inactive creator.
- It's poorly defined, I'll do my best with it.
- Nuclear weapon test: a nuclear weapon includes a nuclear explosion, not just a reactor.
- It is something where the majority of the energy release comes from fission or fusion reactions, not chemical.
- In other words, atom bombs or hydrogen bombs, but not nuclear-propelled aircraft, ships, cruise missiles, etc. and not dirty bombs. "Test" would include failed tests, so in this case it's whether that was the (apparent) intended result; a fizzle or other failure would count as a test.
- For now the boundaries of the archipelago will be "I know it when I see it"; If someone has a proposal for how to handle stuff in the ocean near the archipelago please post it.