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33 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
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1,1 k €
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)
Manifold MarketsIf North Korea tests a nuclear weapon, how many will they test?
Manifold MarketsU.S. tests/uses nuclear weapon during Trump's presidency?
Manifold MarketsWill any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketRègles
This event predicts whether any nuclear weapon explosive test will be conducted anywhere in the world between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive).
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be confirmations published by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) Preparatory Commission.
- If the CTBTO confirms that at least one nuclear weapon explosive test occurred during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Suspected or alleged tests that are not confirmed by the CTBTO will not count.
- If evidence is ambiguous or confirmation is delayed, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations citing CTBTO or equivalent authoritative findings.