Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOther 43.1%En tête parmi 12 options
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7
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Variation 7j
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Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète17 oct. 22, 12:03 UTC31 oct. 26, 14:59 UTC
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According to South Korean intelligence, North Korea's five-year weapons development plan (unveiled Jan 2021) requires multiple types of nuclear weapons to be tested.
- It has been suggested that North Korea may be planning on a succession of tests of tactical nuclear weapons of different sizes, similar to the test series that were run by Pakistan and India in 1998.
- In 1998, India tested a salvo of three weapons, followed by a salvo of two weapons two days later.
- Similarly, Pakistan tested a salvo of five weapons simultaneously, and followed up with a sixth test of a single warhead two days later.
- (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_Pakistan, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_India)
- Conditional on North Korea testing a nuclear weapon, how many will they test in the initial salvo and in the subsequent 30 days?
