Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour U.S. tests/uses nuclear weapon during Trump's presidency? ?

Manifold Markets cote No à 88.9% au 27 octobre 2026.

Quand U.S. tests/uses nuclear weapon during Trump's presidency? sera-t-il résolu ?

U.S. tests/uses nuclear weapon during Trump's presidency? doit être résolu le 20 janvier 2029.

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Non 88.9%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 4 heures

Obsolète

3 nov. 25, 23:51 UTC20 janv. 29, 11:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

This market resolves YES if, at any point during Donald Trump’s current presidency, the United States tests or uses a nuclear weapon.

“Test” means any nuclear detonation — underground, atmospheric, or subcritical — officially conducted or authorized by the U.S. government for research, maintenance, or demonstration purposes.
“Use” means the detonation of a nuclear weapon in military action or combat.
The market resolves NO if Trump’s presidency ends without either event occurring.
Sources: Resolution will be based on official U.S. government statements (e.g. Department of Defense (“War”), Department of Energy, or the White House) or confirmation by major media outlets such as Reuters, AP, BBC, or The New York Times.