Will the US conduct ground operations in mainland Iran before Jan 1, 2027?
One-OffGéopolitiqueMoyen-Orient2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 84.8%
Prévisionnistes
29
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète5 mars 26, 16:13 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
This market resolves YES if, before Jan 1, 2027, the United States conducts ground military operations inside mainland Iran.
- “Mainland Iran” excludes offshore islands such as Kharg Island.
- For this market to resolve YES, all of the following must occur:
- At least 100 uniformed members of the United States Armed Forces are physically present on land inside Iranian sovereign territory.
- These personnel are participating in military ground operations (e.g., raids, combat operations, seizures of facilities, or other military activity conducted on the ground).
- The following do not qualify: