Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 93.2%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète6 déc. 25, 23:02 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Above-ground nuclear explosion by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsRussia nuclear test by which date?
PolymarketIran nuclear test before 2027?
PolymarketU.S. nuclear test by which date?
PolymarketWill the US conduct a nuclear test in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the midterm elections take place on November 3rd?
Manifold MarketsRègles
The weapon must detonate, meaning nuclear yield exceeding chemical yield.
- Offensive, peaceful, or accidental use is not included.
- @/EvanDaniel/will-an-aboveground-nuclear-test-ta
- @/EvanDaniel/will-an-aboveground-nuclear-test-ta-6g0yu8nmo1
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will an above-ground nuclear test take place in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 93% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will an above-ground nuclear test take place in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will an above-ground nuclear test take place in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will an above-ground nuclear test take place in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The weapon must detonate, meaning nuclear yield exceeding chemical yield.