Prévision communautaire actuelle
Quantum Mechanics (includes Quantum Computing) 37%En tête parmi 12 options
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 24 minutes
2 janv. 26, 15:18 UTC30 sept. 26, 14:16 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Chemistry Nobel 2026: Awarded Field(s) Multimarket
Manifold MarketsWill at least one US citizen be awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics?
Manifold MarketsWill a theory of everything (a theory that unites relativity and quantum mechanics) be found in physics by 2040?
Manifold Markets2026 Nobel Physics winner?
KalshiWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiSuper Ballon d'Or awarded before 2030
KalshiRègles
These independent markets resolve Yes if any of the 2026 Physics Nobels are awarded for work in X, in whole or in large parts.
- Multiple markets can, and probably will, resolve Yes.
- You can request fields I might have forgotten, but I'm not doing too niche things I would have difficulty resolving.
- In case of ambiguity, I will discuss in the comments and might resolve N/A. I have formal education in the field, and will not participate to stay impartial.
- Despite this, there is some element of subjectivity in the resolution.
- I will provide my rationale for resolving, and you can also look at my previous Nobel market to judge my reliability.
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 226,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 125,2 k €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 108,3 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Physics Nobel 2026: Awarded Field(s) Multimarket ?
- Manifold Markets cote Quantum Mechanics (includes Quantum Computing) à 37% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Physics Nobel 2026: Awarded Field(s) Multimarket sera-t-il résolu ?
- Physics Nobel 2026: Awarded Field(s) Multimarket doit être résolu le 30 septembre 2026.
- Comment Physics Nobel 2026: Awarded Field(s) Multimarket est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : These independent markets resolve Yes if any of the 2026 Physics Nobels are awarded for work in X, in whole or in large parts.