Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 86.3%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète12 janv. 26, 00:59 UTC17 oct. 26, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Nobel Prize in Economics 2026
KalshiIf a Nobel Prize for Economics is awarded to work on prediction markets before 2040, will the recipient be Robin Hanson?
Manifold MarketsWill Michael Levin be awarded the Nobel Prize?
Manifold MarketsAssuming Robin Hanson is awarded the nobel prize, which of his research areas will it be related to?
Manifold MarketsNobel Prize in Literature: 2026
KalshiSuper Ballon d'Or awarded before 2030
KalshiRègles
Resolving based on the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel.
- This is one of 25 props in the 11th annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here:
- https://braff.co/advice/f/announcing-the-2026-narcissist-forecasting-contest
- The prop and any ambiguities will be resolved by a panel of human judges, as described in the fine print of the entry form:
- https://forms.gle/nDDxdxyYSNheY9FV7
- This means that the prop may resolve differently from how other, similar-looking Manifold props resolve.
Marchés ouverts
Awards
POLYMARKETBallon d'Or Winner 2026
- Harry Kane-1.0pt62.4%
- Lamine Yamal13.9%
- Kylian Mbappé+0.6pt10.9%
+28 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,8 M €
- Volume 24h
- 375 k €
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Ncaafheisman 26
- DMEN+2.0pt17%
- AMAN11%
- CCAR10%
+28 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 117,7 k €
KALSHIThe Game Awards: 2026 Game of the Year
- Grand Theft Auto VI62.9%
- Resident Evil Requiem10.3%
- Control Resonant+1.0pt7.8%
+17 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,7 M €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETBallon d'Or Top 3 Finish 2026
- Harry Kane+0.8pt94%
- Lamine Yamal-8.5pt77%
- Kylian Mbappé-8.0pt60%
+28 résultats de plus
KALSHIMTV Video Music Awards: Best Alternative
- Olivia Rodrigo-4.0pt62.1%
- twenty one pilots+5.0pt14.7%
- Noah Kahan-6.0pt9.5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,5 k €
KALSHIMTV Video Music Awards: Best Latin
- Shakira & Burna Boy39.8%
- Bad Bunny-2.0pt30.6%
- Anitta with Shakira25%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 19,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 994,7 €
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best K-Pop
- MTV Video Music Awards: Song of The Year
- MLS: 2026 Goalkeeper of the Year
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best New Artist
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best Collaboration
- 2026 MTV Video Music Awards: Host
- MTV Video Music Awards: Video of the Year
- Grammy Winner: Best New Artist
- MTV Video Music Awards: Artist of The Year
- MLS: 2026 Golden Boot Winner
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best Country
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best Dance
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will at least one US citizen be awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 86% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will at least one US citizen be awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will at least one US citizen be awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics? doit être résolu le 17 octobre 2026.
- Comment Will at least one US citizen be awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolving based on the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel.