Is Dario Amodei correct that most human disease be cured in 5-10 years?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffIASanté et médecine10aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 92.1%
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète16 août 26, 04:05 UTC31 déc. 36, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, for any calendar year from 2029 through 2034 (inclusive), official CDC mortality statistics show that the majority (greater than 50%) of all deaths in the United States (excluding deaths directly resulting from war or combat) are classified under "external causes of morbidity and mortality" rather than "natural causes" (diseases and clinical syndromes).
- The market will reference the final mortality data from the CDC WONDER database or the official National Vital Statistics Reports (NVSR).
- Specifically, the YES threshold is met if:
- The total annual number of deaths categorized under ICD-10 Chapter XX ("External causes of morbidity and mortality" codes V01–Y89) is greater than the total annual number of deaths categorized under ICD-10 Chapters I through XVIII (codes A00–R99, which encompass infectious diseases, cancers, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory illness, diabetes, dementia, and other physical/mental diseases).
- Deaths directly from war/combat (e.g., ICD-10 codes Y36, U01.1, U02) will be subtracted from both totals before comparison.