By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?

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Oui 67.2%

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22 avr. 24, 21:43 UTC28 déc. 29, 07:59 UTC

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From this article regarding an interview with Dario Amodei: https://futurism.com/the-byte/anthropic-ceo-ai-replicate-survive

When Klein asked how long it would take to get to these various threat levels, Amodei — who said he's wont to thinking "in exponentials" — said he thinks the "replicate and survive in the wild" level could be reached "anywhere from 2025 to 2028."
"I’m truly talking about the near future here.
I’m not talking about 50 years away," the Anthropic CEO said. "God grant me chastity, but not now.
But 'not now' doesn’t mean when I’m old and gray.
I think it could be near-term."

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By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?

One-OffIA Tech Science3a

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Oui 67.2%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 5 minutes

22 avr. 24, 21:43 UTC28 déc. 29, 07:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Marchés Associés

Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.

Dario Amodei arrested by December 31?

Polymarket

Will Dario Amodei write an essay on what powerful AI will look like, and/or when it will arrive, by October 2027?

Manifold Markets

Dario Amodei out as Anthropic CEO this year?

Kalshi

Is Dario Amodei correct that most human disease be cured in 5-10 years?

Manifold Markets

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Polymarket

AI models will be able to complete 20-hour software engineering tasks in 2026

Manifold Markets

Règles

From this article regarding an interview with Dario Amodei: https://futurism.com/the-byte/anthropic-ceo-ai-replicate-survive

When Klein asked how long it would take to get to these various threat levels, Amodei — who said he's wont to thinking "in exponentials" — said he thinks the "replicate and survive in the wild" level could be reached "anywhere from 2025 to 2028."
"I’m truly talking about the near future here.
I’m not talking about 50 years away," the Anthropic CEO said. "God grant me chastity, but not now.
But 'not now' doesn’t mean when I’m old and gray.
I think it could be near-term."

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Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”? ?: Manifold Markets cote Yes à 67% au 8 septembre 2026.
Quand By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”? sera-t-il résolu ?: By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”? doit être résolu le 28 décembre 2029.
Comment By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”? est-il réglé ?: Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : From this article regarding an interview with Dario Amodei: https://futurism.com/the-byte/anthropic-ceo-ai-replicate-survive

By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?

By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?

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