Will Dario Amodei write an essay on what powerful AI will look like, and/or when it will arrive, by October 2027?
IAOne-Off1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 64.7%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète13 oct. 24, 19:03 UTC12 oct. 27, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Dario Amodei out as Anthropic CEO before IPO?
Polymarket[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2027?
Manifold MarketsBy the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?
Manifold MarketsDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketDario Amodei out as Anthropic CEO this year?
KalshiIs Dario Amodei correct that most human disease be cured in 5-10 years?
Manifold MarketsRègles
In Machines of Loving Grace: How Machines Could Transform the World for the Better (October 11, 2024) Dario Amodei writes:
- What powerful AI (I dislike the term AGI) will look like, and when (or if) it will arrive, is a huge topic in itself.
- It’s one I’ve discussed publicly and could write a completely separate essay on (I probably will at some point).
- This question asks:
- Will Dario Amodei write and publish an essay on what powerful AI will look like, and/or when it will arrive, by October 11, 2027?
- I will refrain from participating in this market to avoid bias when judging the resolution.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Dario Amodei write an essay on what powerful AI will look like, and/or when it will arrive, by October 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 65% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Dario Amodei write an essay on what powerful AI will look like, and/or when it will arrive, by October 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Dario Amodei write an essay on what powerful AI will look like, and/or when it will arrive, by October 2027? doit être résolu le 12 octobre 2027.
- Comment Will Dario Amodei write an essay on what powerful AI will look like, and/or when it will arrive, by October 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : In Machines of Loving Grace: How Machines Could Transform the World for the Better (October 11, 2024) Dario Amodei writes: