Will Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPO?
RégulationOne-OffIAOpérations sur titresPolitiqueÉlection1a
KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Oui 65%
Oui 65%Qualité du marché
57 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
2,3 k €
Intérêt ouvert
2,3 k €
Intérêt ouvert moyenAchat / Vente
62.0% / 68.0%
Écart
6.0 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 24 minutes
30 sept. 26, 02:00 UTC1 janv. 28, 15:00 UTC
Tendances
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Kalshi
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Clôture anticipée:
- Oui
- Délai de règlement:
- 30m (indicatif)
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Sam Altman hold super-voting OpenAI shares at IPO?
KalshiWill Dario Amodei write an essay on what powerful AI will look like, and/or when it will arrive, by October 2027?
Manifold MarketsDario Amodei out as Anthropic CEO before IPO?
PolymarketWill Sam Altman and Dario Amodei hold hands again, before 2030?
Manifold MarketsDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketIs Dario Amodei correct that most human disease be cured in 5-10 years?
Manifold MarketsRègles
La règle exacte de ce résultat n'est pas disponible.
Règlement via:The Washington Postthe New York TimesMS NowABCNBCBBCCNBCThe Wall Street JournalCBSFox Newsthe Associated PressCNNReutersBloomberg NewsSEC filings
- How this is resolved SEC filings take priority, followed by the other sources listed in the full rules. Ownership and votes per share are measured at the initial closing of Anthropic's IPO. Payout Criteria Dario Amodei holds shares with more votes per share than those sold to the public. Beneficial ownership, including through trusts or other entities, counts. Votes are compared on a common-share-equivalent basis, including convertible shares and Up-C structures. Any qualifying holding counts, regardless of size. Doesn't count for payout Announcements, unexercised options, unsettled RSUs, or shares acquired only after that closing. Veto or special board-election rights without higher votes per share. Direct listings, SPAC transactions, or offerings outside SEC registration. If a share is held through an entity and voted by majority decision of three or more individuals, none of whom can individually direct or block that vote, person does not "hold" that share by being one of those individuals. This does not apply if person can individually direct or block the vote, or if the share is reported as beneficially owned by person. It also does not apply if person can individually direct or block the share's disposition, or if the share is reported as beneficially owned by person in any Form 3, Form 4, Schedule 13D, or Schedule 13G. Example that would NOT resolve the market to Yes: Assuming person is Individual A, a hypothetical Anthropic co-founder: a Class F share carrying 50.1% of voting power is held by an LLC whose vote is directed by majority of seven co-founders, including Individual A. The final prospectus reports the share as held by the LLC, not Individual A. The Contract resolves No, because Individual A cannot direct or block the vote alone Expiration and no IPO Latest expiration: 10:00 AM ET on the earlier of 14 days after IPO shares first trade or one year after issuance. The market may close early if the payout criterion is met. Resolves No if no qualifying IPO closes by expiration, or no source reports a qualifying holding by then. Please see the full rules for more details. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Anthropic. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Règles de chaque résultat
- Yes
- La règle exacte de ce résultat n'est pas disponible.
- No
- La règle exacte de ce résultat n'est pas disponible.