Will "Anthropic: "Statement from Dario Amodei on ou..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Questions fréquentes

Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will "Anthropic: "Statement from Dario Amodei on ou..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? ?

Manifold Markets cote No à 86% au 28 octobre 2026.

Quand Will "Anthropic: "Statement from Dario Amodei on ou..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? sera-t-il résolu ?

Will "Anthropic: "Statement from Dario Amodei on ou..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? doit être résolu le 1 février 2028.

Comment Will "Anthropic: "Statement from Dario Amodei on ou..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? est-il réglé ?

Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.

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POLYMARKET

US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

• October 28+1.6pt98%
• October 31+4.0pt95%
• November 8+7.0pt73%

+17 résultats de plus

Volume total

25,2 M €

Volume 24h

661,7 k €

POLYMARKET

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

• October 27+1.7pt100%
• October 31+2.0pt95%
• November 15-4.0pt62%

+28 résultats de plus

POLYMARKET

US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?

• March 3160%
• December 31-1.3pt35%
• November 30-1.0pt23%

+21 résultats de plus

POLYMARKET

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

• Yes+6.0pt90.1%
• No-6.0pt9.9%

Volume total

1,2 M €

Volume 24h

113,8 k €

POLYMARKET

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?

• December 31,+1.0pt72%
• November 30,+1.0pt69%
• October 31,+1.0pt66%

+15 résultats de plus

POLYMARKET

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

• 4-1.7pt67.3%
• 527.6%
• 6-0.7pt3.1%

+13 résultats de plus

• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
• What will Trump say during his rally in Chillicothe, Ohio?
• Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by which date?
• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
• Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
• Who will be arrested before 2027?
• US-Iran nuclear deal?
• Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?
• NATO x Russia military clash by which date?