Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle0 84.3%En tête parmi 7 options
Prévisionnistes
32
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète16 janv. 26, 01:12 UTC20 janv. 29, 11:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
Manifold MarketsHow many times will the Fed raise rates during Trump's second term?
Manifold MarketsWill a Supreme Court justice retire during Trump’s second term?
Manifold MarketsWill the US take control of any part of Greenland?
KalshiHow much will the US acquire Greenland for?
KalshiWill any portion of Greenland become a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction by December 31, 2028?
ForecastExRègles
Military combat deaths, combined, across any military.
- Update 2026-01-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Civilians killed by military are generally counted as combat deaths.
- Resolution may depend on practical realities of available source data and how sources count deaths.
- The creator may use Wikipedia infobox data as the source, though this is not definitively committed to.
Marchés ouverts
Geopolitics
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 581,3 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 55,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 96,8 k €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour How many combat deaths will there be in Greenland during Trump's second term? ?
- Manifold Markets cote 0 à 84% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand How many combat deaths will there be in Greenland during Trump's second term? sera-t-il résolu ?
- How many combat deaths will there be in Greenland during Trump's second term? doit être résolu le 20 janvier 2029.
- Comment How many combat deaths will there be in Greenland during Trump's second term? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Military combat deaths, combined, across any military.