Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 91.9%
Prévisionnistes
33
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète11 mars 26, 00:36 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by which date?
PolymarketMilitary conflict between the US and Cuba before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a military conflict break out between Russia and Kazakhstan in the next five years?
Manifold MarketsUS and Canada engage in armed conflict before January 1, 2029
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if China directly engages in military conflict before December 31, 2026. "Direct engagement" means Chinese military forces (PLA, PLAN, PLAAF, or affiliated paramilitary forces) initiate or participate in armed combat operations resulting in exchange of fire or kinetic action against another nation's military or civilian targets.
- Coercive military activities that do not involve direct combat—such as blockades, military exercises, incursions into airspace or territorial waters, or coast guard operations—do not qualify.
- The conflict must involve actual combat operations.
- Resolution sources: Official statements from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, US Department of Defense, Taiwan Ministry of National Defense, and major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera).