Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNot by 2040 76.6%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
44
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète28 sept. 23, 19:40 UTC2 janv. 40, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
This is a long-term market to measure the base rate of it being proven and agreed on that at least one instance of a "UFOs = Aliens" theory was correct before the creation of this market.
- It resolves to the one option representing the current time period when this happens, or "the named outcome" if this does not happen.
- I plan for resolution to be based on Wikipedia, or whatever else is generally agreed to be the most neutral and trusted online encyclopedia.
- I may require several trusted encyclopedias to agree, and am open to suggestions of which ones to trust.
- If Manifold adds the ability to close options early, I will do so when a date passes without any consensus.
- I will not bet in this market, except to set the initial probability.
