Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 88.4%
Prévisionnistes
87
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète24 sept. 23, 01:11 UTC2 janv. 00, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
By end of 2039, will a child will be born whose genetic parents are both babies/prepubescent?
Manifold MarketsWill Artificial wombs for premature babies be tested in humans by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill a human walk on the Moon again before 2027?
Manifold MarketsHow many tuberculosis cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
KalshiWhich countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
KalshiHow many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
KalshiRègles
"Concious" is defined in the standard way: There is something it is like to be a baby.
- They have qualia, they have subjective experiences.
- Whatever it is that adult human philosophers believe themselves to have.
- This is about the average human baby, 1 week after birth.
- The existance of some outlier babies is not relevant.
- This market resolves once neuroscience is solved, and it seems we're going to have as good an answer as we're ever going to get.
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028-1.0pt13%
- Before 20275%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 29,8 M €
- Volume 24h
- 93,2 k €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.3pt4%
- April 300%
- June 300%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1+1.5pt75%
- 2+0.5pt24%
- 3-0.2pt1%
+3 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- No-8.4pt88%
- Yes+8.4pt12%
- Volume total
- 27,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 3,2 k €
KALSHIHow many tuberculosis cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
- Above 8k+9.0pt97%
- Above 7k89%
- Above 9k81%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 13,9 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
- Before 204064%
- Before 2035-5.1pt48%
- Before 203033%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 37,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 813,2 €
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
- When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
- Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Are babies conscious? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 88% au 20 septembre 2026.
- Quand Are babies conscious? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Are babies conscious? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2100.
- Comment Are babies conscious? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : "Concious" is defined in the standard way: There is something it is like to be a baby.