Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 70.5%
Prévisionnistes
139
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète4 mai 23, 00:55 UTC31 déc. 26, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
As mentioned in this ACX article, there's this study that shows that pretty much every woman exhibits genital arousal towards women.
- There's NO WAY this is true it's UNFAIR if it is I should've been asking girls out WAYYYY more like wtf have I been doing all this time
- Resolves YES if this paper replicates, NO if it gets retracted/debunked, N/A if that's not what this paper says
Marchés ouverts
Science
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 226,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 125,2 k €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 108,3 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 résultats de plus
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- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Are almost all women into women? (will it replicate?) ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 71% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Are almost all women into women? (will it replicate?) sera-t-il résolu ?
- Are almost all women into women? (will it replicate?) doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Are almost all women into women? (will it replicate?) est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : As mentioned in this ACX article, there's this study that shows that pretty much every woman exhibits genital arousal towards women.