Religion | Mercados de Predicción

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

99%

Sí

Alta calidad (89)Spread estrechoAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total65,6 M US$

Volumen 24h18,2 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Will California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?

20.0 pt (24h)21d

90%

Sí

-20.0pt10%

Calidad media (65)Spread moderadoLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total12,3 mil US$

Volumen 24h7,6 mil US$

KALSHI

What countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?

17.0 pt (24h)3m

Peru

92%

Argentina

88%

Uruguay

88%

+9 resultados más

Calidad media (50)Spread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total192 mil US$

Volumen 24h69 US$

KALSHI

Who will the next Pope be?

0.8 pt (24h)

Luis Antonio Tagle

Pietro Parolin

-0.8pt4%

Matteo Zuppi

+4 resultados más

Calidad media (59)Spread estrechoAlta liquidez

Volumen total137,2 mil US$

Volumen 24h5 US$

KALSHI

Will Taylor Swift meet with Pope Leo XIV before 2027?

95%

Sí

Baja calidad (≤49)Spread moderadoLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total20,7 mil US$

Volumen 24h—

KALSHI

Will the Catholic Church publicly excommunicate anyone else in 2026?

0.5 pt (24h)3m

-0.5pt89.1%

Sí

+0.5pt10.9%

Baja calidad (≤49)Spread moderadoBaja liquidezMercado poco profundo

Volumen total927,7 US$

Volumen 24h—

POLYMARKET

Vatican III in 2026?

91%

Sí

Baja calidad (33)Spread amplioBaja liquidezMercado poco profundo

Volumen total10,3 US$

Volumen 24h—

POLYMARKET

Restrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church: loosened in 2026?

81%

Sí

19%

Baja calidad (33)Spread desconocidoBaja liquidezMercado poco profundo

Volumen total3,6 US$

Volumen 24h—

FUTUUR

Pope to allow women to preach masses by the end of 2026?

96%

Sí

Baja calidad (31)Spread desconocidoBaja liquidezMercado poco profundo

Volumen total0,1 US$

Volumen 24h—

FUTUUR

Will Trump post another religious image deifying himself?

Sí

70%

30%

Pronóstico comunitario263 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Pope excommunicate JD Vance before 2028?

96%

Sí

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PREDICTIT

GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)

Sí

55.3%

44.7%

Pronóstico comunitario18 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 19 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the next pope convene Vatican 3?

78.9%

Sí

21.1%

Pronóstico comunitario12 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 21 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Catholic Church in Germany ordains women before Christmas 2028?

85.7%

Sí

14.3%

Pronóstico comunitario12 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 21 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Catholic and Eastern Orthodox Churches reconcile before 2050?

82.6%

Sí

17.4%

Pronóstico comunitario20 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 22 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will membership in the LDS church decline YoY in any year between now and 2030

76.6%

Sí

23.4%

Pronóstico comunitario46 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 59 minutos

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will @Austin Chen still believe in God at the end of 2026?

Sí

88%

12%

Pronóstico comunitario21 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 1 hora

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What percentage of humans will follow Islam in 2100?

73%

Sí

27%

Pronóstico comunitario5 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 3 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be a trend spike for the term "Animism" before 2035?

Sí

86.7%

13.3%

Pronóstico comunitario8 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 4 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028

94.2%

Sí

5.8%

Pronóstico comunitario8 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 5 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Scientology loses IRS Tax-exempt status

79.2%

Sí

20.8%

Pronóstico comunitario16 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 5 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Joe Rogan convert to Islam by the end of 2030?

95.6%

Sí

4.4%

Pronóstico comunitario20 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 5 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Jesus Christ return in 2026?

99%

Sí

Pronóstico comunitario44 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 6 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Pope Leo XIV attend a professional sports game in the USA?

95%

Sí

Pronóstico comunitario38 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 9 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the LDS Church (Mormons) allow for gay marriage in their temple before the end of 2030?

95.2%

Sí

4.8%

Pronóstico comunitario19 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 9 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Jose Luis Ricon have an arranged marriage?

75%

Sí

25%

Pronóstico comunitario7 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 10 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the next pope be Italian?

66%

Sí

34%

Pronóstico comunitario10 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 10 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Jose Luis ricon get a tradwife by 2044

18a

Sí

54.8%

45.2%

Pronóstico comunitario1 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 10 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Pope Leo XIV issues a document addressing birth control teaching by December 31, 2026?

79.3%

Sí

20.7%

Pronóstico comunitario18 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 10 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Jesus Christ return by 2030 (according to the pope)?

98.4%

Sí

1.6%

Pronóstico comunitario25 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 11 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Catholic Church train a PopeGPT and endorse it as doctrinally sound by end of 2027?

95%

Sí

Pronóstico comunitario53 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 13 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Bart Ehrman Will Convert to Esoteric/Gnostic Christianity before 2030?

90.3%

Sí

9.7%

Pronóstico comunitario3 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 14 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Donald Trump becomes a Pope-like figure?

91.3%

Sí

8.7%

Pronóstico comunitario30 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 15 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What percentage of humans will follow Christianity in 2100?

70.8%

Sí

29.2%

Pronóstico comunitario11 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 15 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

[ACX 2026] Will restrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church be loosened during 2026?

88.6%

Sí

11.4%

Pronóstico comunitario18 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 13 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the percentage of U.S. adults identifying as Christian in the U.S. drop below 60% by the end of 2026?

80.7%

Sí

19.3%

Pronóstico comunitario55 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 16 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Joe Schmid be Catholic end of 2026?

Sí

93.7%

6.3%

Pronóstico comunitario11 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 13 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the percentage of Americans identifying as Christian drop below 20% before 2100?

63%

Sí

37%

Pronóstico comunitario4 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 3 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will jesus respawn before 2027????

94.5%

Sí

5.5%

Pronóstico comunitario15 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Is Donald Trump the Antichrist?

73.9%

Sí

26.1%

Pronóstico comunitario20 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 7 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

In 100 years (2123) will Trump worship will be a thing?

75.1%

Sí

24.9%

Pronóstico comunitario16 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 8 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the first ASI proclaim Christianity true?

90%

Sí

10%

Pronóstico comunitario55 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 8 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the second coming of Jesus Christ happen within the next 100 years?

96%

Sí

Pronóstico comunitario15 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 9 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will "Church Planting: When Venture Capital Finds Jesus" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

84.1%

Sí

15.9%

Pronóstico comunitario2 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 9 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Bentham's Bulldog be Catholic end of 2026?

88.9%

Sí

11.1%

Pronóstico comunitario7 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 23 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will @aella revert to Christianity within 5 years?

96.1%

Sí

3.9%

Pronóstico comunitario54 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 11 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Alex O'Connor convert to Christinanity before 2027?

91.9%

Sí

8.1%

Pronóstico comunitario18 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 11 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?

96.9%

Sí

3.1%

Pronóstico comunitario192 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 53 minutos

MANIFOLD MARKETS