Will the percentage of U.S. adults identifying as Christian in the U.S. drop below 60% by the end of 2026?
One-OffReligiónSociedad y culturaPolítica de EE. UU.2mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 17:04 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 80.7%
Pronosticadores
55
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 24 minutos
13 abr 24, 20:53 UTC1 ene 27, 10:59 UTC
Tendencias
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KalshiReglas
In 2020, 64% of Americans identified as Christian, according to Pew Research Center.
- This marked a continuation of a long-term decline in Christian affiliation in the U.S. This market asks traders to predict whether this downward trend will persist, specifically if the percentage of Americans identifying as Christian will fall below 60% by the end of 2026.
- Resolution Details: The resolution will be based on the latest available data from reputable sources such as Pew Research Center or other credible surveys that are published by the end of 2026.
- The market resolves as "Yes" if the percentage is reported to be below 60%, and "No" if it is 60% or above.
- If no new survey data are available by the deadline, the market will resolve as invalid.
- This market design gives a clear and direct question that can be objectively verified with upcoming survey data, making it straightforward for traders to research and forecast based on trends and changing demographics in U.S. religious affiliation.
