Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 76.5%
Pronosticadores
49
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 48 minutos
Retrasado13 dic 22, 2:29 UTC1 ene 28, 5:00 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will the percentage of philosophers identifying as religious in the next PhilPapers Survey decrease?
Manifold MarketsWill the percentage of Americans identifying as Christian drop below 20% before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill the percentage of U.S. adults identifying as Christian in the U.S. drop below 60% by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat will NYC subway average weekday ridership be in October 2026?
KalshiMaine lobster landings in 2026
KalshiUS Birth Rate in 2026? (Per 1000 Women)
PolymarketReglas
In a discussion with a friend about whether everyone has a gender identity, I mentioned that it wouldn't bother me if people referred to me as a woman.
- They expressed some skepticism of this; their belief was that everyone has a gender identity, but for people whose identity matches their current body and social role, they don't notice any discomfort or feeling of "wrongness", so they don't end up having any subjective experience of having a gender identity.
- The condition is met if I ask my aquaintances to refer to me with she/her pronouns, and then I'll resolve to YES or NO depending on whether I feel like those pronouns make me uncomfortable in some fundamental way.
- If I haven't done this by the end of 2024, I'll resolve this to N/A, unless I still feel like I might do it soon, in which case I'll extend the deadline a bit.
- For reference:
- I've identified and mostly been treated as a man for my whole life, which hasn't bothered me.